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Overconfidence: When Confidence Outruns Evidence
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Overconfidence: When Confidence Outruns Evidence
2:29 · AI Generated · 8/28/2026
Chapters
Slides
Summary
Transcript
Chapters
Slides
Summary
Transcript
Chapters
1
Confidently wrong
0:00
2
The gateway effect
0:15
3
Three dimensions
0:35
4
Narrow certainty
0:55
5
Expertise is not calibration
1:13
6
When plans outrun history
1:31
7
Above average is relative
1:48
8
Make confidence answer to evidence
2:07
