A Recipe for Disappointment: The Winner's Curse in Policy Tr...

Name: A Recipe for Disappointment: The Winner's Curse in Policy Trials
Uploaded: 2026-06-22T11:57:35.118Z
Duration: 282 s
Description: Adrian Simpson explains why selecting the best-looking intervention from a noisy evidence set leads to systematic overestimation — the winner's curse in…

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A Recipe for Disappointment: The Winner's Curse in Policy Tr...

0:00 / 4:42

Introduction: The Winner's Curse in Policy

0:00 - 0:35

The Auction Analogy

0:35 - 1:08

How the Curse Appears in RCTs

1:08 - 1:44

The Adjustment Method

1:44 - 2:21

The EEF Dataset

2:21 - 3:06

Observed vs. Adjusted Effects

3:06 - 3:54

Policy Lessons and Limits

3:54 - 4:42