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Module 7 ATEM
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Module 7 ATEM
Flashcard Deck
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1
Question
What is forecasting?
Answer
Attempt to quantify demand in a future time period.
2
Question
Why is forecasting essential in air transportation management?
Answer
Necessary for planning future actions and decisions.
3
Question
Distinguish between forecasting and planning.
Answer
Forecasting predicts future volumes; planning sets objectives and strategies.
4
Question
How is forecasting integrated into planning in aviation enterprises?
Answer
Forecasts inform goals, strategies, and alternative courses of action.
5
Question
What are the purposes of short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasts?
Answer
Short-term: day-to-day operations, Medium-term: route planning, Long-term: fleet planning.
6
Question
Give examples of decisions influenced by forecasting in the aviation industry.
Answer
Aircraft purchases, route introductions, and commuter aircraft development.
7
Question
Explain the role of analysis in using forecasting in aviation management.
Answer
Helps in making choices among markets, services, and aircraft types.
8
Question
How does forecasting contribute to planning in aviation firms?
Answer
Quantitative estimates of demand inform resource allocation and scheduling.
9
Question
Why is control important in forecasting for companies in the air transportation sector?
Answer
Actual performance is compared to forecasts to assess market conditions.
10
Question
What is the cautionary note about obtaining statistical data for forecasting?
Answer
Different sources may have varied reporting methods; use reputable sources.
11
Question
What are the advantages of qualitative forecasting methods?
Answer
Flexibility, adaptability to changes, and early recognition of anomalies.
12
Question
Name two types of qualitative forecasting methods.
Answer
Focus group and market survey.
13
Question
What is the Delphi method, and how does it work?
Answer
Collects forecasts from an expert panel independently, then creates a consensus forecast.
14
Question
How does historical analogy differ from other forecasting methods?
Answer
Relies on historical events; qualitative and dependent on forecaster's knowledge.
15
Question
Explain the purpose of barometric forecasting in aviation.
Answer
Uses indicators to predict future values of variables, aiding in forecasting demand.
16
Question
What is the significance of leading economic indicators in aviation forecasting?
Answer
Provides early signals of changes in the economy and predicts future demand.
17
Question
Give an example of a lagging economic indicator relevant to aviation.
Answer
Unemployment rate.
18
Question
How is the Delphi method different from historical analogy in forecasting?
Answer
Delphi method involves multiple expert opinions, while historical analogy relies on individual knowledge.
19
Question
What is a coincident economic indicator in aviation forecasting?
Answer
Variables whose changes coincide with changes in other economic variables, e.g., crude oil prices.
20
Question
What is the focus of judgmental forecasts in aviation?
Answer
21
Question
What is the Delphi method in forecasting?
Answer
Involves multiple expert opinions to reach a consensus forecast.
22
Question
What is the historical analogy method in forecasting?
Answer
Relies on individual knowledge of historical patterns to make forecasts.
23
Question
What is a coincident economic indicator in aviation forecasting?
Answer
Variables whose changes coincide with changes in other economic variables, e.g., crude oil prices.
24
Question
What is the focus of judgmental forecasts in aviation?
Answer
Educated guesses based on intuition and subjective evaluations.
25
Question
How can expert opinion be used in judgmental forecasting?
Answer
Drawn from within or outside the company, tapping into managerial experience.
26
Question
What role does the sales force play in judgmental forecasting?
Answer
Provides insights from the marketplace, especially in breaking down sales by territory and customer.
27
Question
Explain the concept of poll forecasts in aviation.
Answer
Based on expressed intentions of the target market, gathered through surveys.
28
Question
Why might polls be preferable in forecasting certain aviation markets?
Answer
Useful when buyers' intentions are not planned carefully or when experts and sales force opinions are unreliable.
29
Question
What are the advantages of using sales force estimates in forecasting?
Answer
Close proximity to the marketplace, knowledge of local trends, and insights into competitor strategies.
30
Question
How does market experimentation differ from other forecasting methods?
Answer
Involves testing new product factors in real-life markets, such as prices or packaging.