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Module 7 ATEM
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Module 7 ATEM
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What is forecasting?
Attempt to quantify demand in a future time period.
Why is forecasting essential in air transportation management?
Necessary for planning future actions and decisions.
Distinguish between forecasting and planning.
Forecasting predicts future volumes; planning sets objectives and strategies.
How is forecasting integrated into planning in aviation enterprises?
Forecasts inform goals, strategies, and alternative courses of action.
What are the purposes of short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasts?
Short-term: day-to-day operations, Medium-term: route planning, Long-term: fleet planning.
Give examples of decisions influenced by forecasting in the aviation industry.
Aircraft purchases, route introductions, and commuter aircraft development.
Explain the role of analysis in using forecasting in aviation management.
Helps in making choices among markets, services, and aircraft types.
How does forecasting contribute to planning in aviation firms?
Quantitative estimates of demand inform resource allocation and scheduling.
Why is control important in forecasting for companies in the air transportation sector?
Actual performance is compared to forecasts to assess market conditions.
What is the cautionary note about obtaining statistical data for forecasting?
Different sources may have varied reporting methods; use reputable sources.
What are the advantages of qualitative forecasting methods?
Flexibility, adaptability to changes, and early recognition of anomalies.
Name two types of qualitative forecasting methods.
Focus group and market survey.
What is the Delphi method, and how does it work?
Collects forecasts from an expert panel independently, then creates a consensus forecast.
How does historical analogy differ from other forecasting methods?
Relies on historical events; qualitative and dependent on forecaster's knowledge.
Explain the purpose of barometric forecasting in aviation.
Uses indicators to predict future values of variables, aiding in forecasting demand.
What is the significance of leading economic indicators in aviation forecasting?
Provides early signals of changes in the economy and predicts future demand.
Give an example of a lagging economic indicator relevant to aviation.
Unemployment rate.
How is the Delphi method different from historical analogy in forecasting?
Delphi method involves multiple expert opinions, while historical analogy relies on individual knowledge.
What is a coincident economic indicator in aviation forecasting?
Variables whose changes coincide with changes in other economic variables, e.g., crude oil prices.
What is the focus of judgmental forecasts in aviation?
What is the Delphi method in forecasting?
Involves multiple expert opinions to reach a consensus forecast.
What is the historical analogy method in forecasting?
Relies on individual knowledge of historical patterns to make forecasts.
What is a coincident economic indicator in aviation forecasting?
Variables whose changes coincide with changes in other economic variables, e.g., crude oil prices.
What is the focus of judgmental forecasts in aviation?
Educated guesses based on intuition and subjective evaluations.
How can expert opinion be used in judgmental forecasting?
Drawn from within or outside the company, tapping into managerial experience.
What role does the sales force play in judgmental forecasting?
Provides insights from the marketplace, especially in breaking down sales by territory and customer.
Explain the concept of poll forecasts in aviation.
Based on expressed intentions of the target market, gathered through surveys.
Why might polls be preferable in forecasting certain aviation markets?
Useful when buyers' intentions are not planned carefully or when experts and sales force opinions are unreliable.
What are the advantages of using sales force estimates in forecasting?
Close proximity to the marketplace, knowledge of local trends, and insights into competitor strategies.
How does market experimentation differ from other forecasting methods?
Involves testing new product factors in real-life markets, such as prices or packaging.
